GW5 · VERIFIED FORWARD TEST

Score the forecast.
Then learn.

This archived report scores the frozen GW5 projections against the official FPL event feed. It remains unchanged while later gameweeks run as separate forward tests.

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Active cohort by position

The active cohort includes only players with actual minutes. The position rows and headline cards use this same cohort.

PositionnMAERMSEBiasWithin ±2

Largest misses

The biggest absolute errors stay visible so the report shows where the model still needs to improve.

PlayerPosProjectedActualAbs. error
Archive rule: GW5 is historical evidence, not a backtest of the current GW6 state. The original frozen GW5 projections and official points are preserved here; later model changes cannot rewrite this report.