GW3 · VERIFIED FORWARD TEST
Score the forecast.
Then learn.
This archived report scores the previously frozen GW3 projections against official FPL results. It remains unchanged while later gameweeks run as separate forward tests.
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Active cohort by position
The active cohort is the headline view because it removes players with zero or limited participation from the main model assessment.
| Position | n | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Within ±2 |
|---|
Largest misses
The biggest absolute errors are kept visible rather than excluded from the headline narrative.
| Player | Pos | Projected | Actual | Abs. error |
|---|
Archive rule: GW3 is historical evidence, not a backtest of the current GW5 state. Model changes belong to later forward tests and do not rewrite this report.