How FPL Prism works
A plain-language summary of where the numbers come from and what they can and can't tell you. For the full technical notes, see Model details.
1. The data
Everything starts from the public Fantasy Premier League feeds: players, prices, fixtures, official availability news and past Gameweek scores. Completed seasons are used as a starting point for players with little current data. When you enter a Team ID, FPL Prism reads that team's public picks — it never logs in to FPL and can't change your team.
2. Projecting each player
For every player and every upcoming Gameweek, the model estimates how likely they are to start or come off the bench, then adds up the points they'd expect from each source: appearing, attacking returns, clean sheets, saves, defensive contributions, bonus and cards. These parts sum to the player's expected points. Fixture difficulty shapes those parts; it isn't added on top. Open any player in the dashboard to see the breakdown.
3. The range, not just the average
The model then plays out each player's matches hundreds of times to get a likely range — the 10th to 90th percentile of outcomes. Two players with the same average can have very different ranges: a nailed-on defender sits in a narrow band, while a rotation-risk forward might blank or haul. The risk label describes that spread. It's separate from confidence (how sure the model is about the player's role) and data quality(how much current-season evidence there is).
4. Comparing transfers
In Transfers, you choose who you'd sell. FPL Prism searches legal replacements that respect your budget, positions and the three-per-club limit, then compares the result with simply holding over the next five Gameweeks. Each transfer beyond your free ones costs 4 points, and that hit is subtracted before anything is suggested. If no move clears the bar, it says to hold.
Public data doesn't include your free transfers or the price you'd actually get for a player, so you set the first and the tool uses current listed prices for the second. Both assumptions are shown next to every result.
5. Planning ahead
The planner extends the same idea to eight Gameweeks, comparing Safe, Balanced and Aggressive paths against rolling your transfers. It explores a bounded number of options, so it's a strong suggestion rather than a proven optimum.
6. Checking the record
At each deadline, forecasts are frozen and later compared with official points in the Modelbook, including the misses. Use it to judge how much weight to give the numbers.
What it can't do
- Know team news before it's public. Late injuries and rotation will move results.
- Guarantee points or rank. Expected points are an average over many possible matches.
- See your private FPL data — selling prices, free transfers or chips are inferred or entered by you.
Guides
FPL Prism is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the Premier League.