GW4 · VERIFIED FORWARD TEST
Score the forecast.
Then learn.
This archived report scores the original frozen GW4 projections against official FPL results. It stays unchanged while later gameweeks run as separate forward tests.
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Active cohort by position
The active cohort is the headline view because it removes players with zero or limited participation from the main model assessment.
| Position | n | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Within ±2 |
|---|
Largest misses
The biggest absolute errors are kept visible rather than excluded from the headline narrative.
| Player | Pos | Projected | Actual | Abs. error |
|---|
Archive rule: GW4 is historical evidence, not a backtest of the current GW5 state. The original frozen GW4 projections and official points are preserved here; later model changes cannot rewrite this report.