Start with expected points.
Expected points are the model's average across 10,000 simulated outcomes. They show the central estimate, but they do not show how widely the result can move.
Choose a captain with the whole range in view.
The best FPL captain is not always the player with the highest average. FPL Prism compares expected points with the floor, ceiling and probability bands behind each captaincy decision.
See the safer and riskier paths.
A tight range can suit a manager protecting rank. A wider range can suit a manager chasing. The dashboard shows p10, median and p90 outcomes alongside the average.
- Floor: a lower-tail outcome
- Median: the middle simulated result
- Ceiling: an upper-tail outcome
Match the pick to your situation.
Protect, balanced, chase and mini-league postures use the same projection set but weight uncertainty and differential upside differently. The recommendation is a decision aid, not a guarantee.
Check the record after the deadline.
The public Modelbook preserves deadline snapshots and compares them with official FPL points, including the biggest misses and the model's signed bias.
Useful answers before the deadline.
Does FPL Prism guarantee a captain haul?
No. FPL points are uncertain. FPL Prism reports a distribution of outcomes and explains the assumptions behind it.
How does FPL Prism compare captain picks?
It combines expected points, expected minutes, fixture context, player rates and a simulated outcome range, then applies the manager's chosen risk posture.
Where can I see this week's captain projections?
Open the live dashboard and enter a public FPL Team ID, or use the sample squad to explore the decision desk without an account.
Can I compare a safe captain with a differential?
Yes. Use the floor, ceiling, haul probability and Sharpe-style score in Player Market, then open the reasoning behind each player.